Friday, December 19, 2008

DUBAI - THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL MELTDOWN

A selection of articles in the media regarding the situation in Dubai.

Dubai faces meltdown, expat job losses feared

Dubai, Nov 12 : For the first time, fears have been openly voiced over a business meltdown in Dubai due to the global finanacial crisis, after a steep fall in realty stocks, the stalling of real estate sales, sacking of 200 employees by a leading developer and tightening of credits by banks.

In a front page report, the Gulf News reported that the Dubai stock market plummeted more than seven per cent yesterday as investors, gripped by worries of a real estate crash and a grim regional and global economic outlook, continued to be on a selling spree.

Many Indian developers like Shobha, stars like Shah Rukh Khan and expatriate businessmen have announced investments in the UAE and any likely meltdown will hit their business as well as job prospects of thousands of Indians and other expatriates.

It has been carnage in Dubai stock exchanges in the last few days as the worth of top government-owned real estate companies like Emaar, which had planned huge developments in India with a Calcutta-based real estate firm, continued rapid downward slide, declining 9.88 per cent to close at 3.74 Dirhams.

"Dubai is bearing the brunt of the regional and global market weakness... The market perception is that Dubai is seen as the "weakest link" within the GCC in this environment," said Khalid Masri, executive partner, Rasmala Investments. The combined loss of market capitalisation since last Sunday is about 65 billion Dirhams.

Vyas Jayabhanu, head of Abu Dhabi-based Al Dhafra Brokerage said a series of news yesterday created havoc. "Investors didn't take kindly to the news that real estate major Damac has laid off 200 employees. And then there was another big one that Emirates airlines profits dived by 88 per cent...Hence, investors, who came in today, did not believe Emaar chairman Mohammad Al Abbar's statement that UAE's GDP will contract from 14 per cent to nine per cent. They certainly feel it is going to be worse," he added.

In the last two months, expatriates, including a majority of Indians had sent home four billion Dirhams taking advantage of low rupee exchange value. Most of the funds were raised through easy personal loans from banks and any large scale layoffs will mean losses to banks.

Elsewhere in the region, a similar gloom pervades investors. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul Index closed 5.2 per cent down and Kuwait's stock exchange, the second largest in the Arab world, dropped 2.6 per cent. Qatar and Bahrain stock exchanges declined 6.25 per cent and 2.74 per cent, respectively.

Yesterday, leading UAE bank Mashreq announced that it was open to merger. Meanwhile, a top banker from cash rich Abu Dhabi, the CEO of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Ervin Enox said his bank will not allow defaults from Dubai-owned government companies on credit payments

Global financial crisis hits Dubai
Wednesday, November 12 2008

Dubai, Nov 12: Dubai city for the first time witnessed fear of financial meltdown on Tuesday, Nov 11 after the steep fall in realty stocks, the stalling of real estate sales, sacking of 200 employees by a leading developer and tightening of credits by banks. Also the fear was openly voiced over a business meltdown due to the global economic crisis.

On Tuesday, the Gulf News reported that the Dubai stock market plummeted more than seven per cent on Tuesday, Nov 11 as investors, gripped by worries of a real estate crash and a grim regional and global economic outlook, continued to be on a selling spree. Many Indian developers like Shobha, stars like Shah Rukh Khan and expatriate businessmen have announced investments in the UAE and any likely meltdown will hit their business as well as job prospects of thousands of Indians and other expatriates.

It has been carnage in Dubai stock exchanges in the last few days as the worth of top government-owned real estate companies like Emaar, which had planned huge developments in India with a Calcutta-based real estate firm, continued rapid downward slide, declining 9.88 per cent to close at 3.74 Dirhams.

"Dubai is bearing the brunt of the regional and global market weakness... The market perception is that Dubai is seen as the 'weakest link' within the GCC in this environment," said Khalid Masri, executive partner, Rasmala Investments. The combined loss of market capitalisation since last Sunday is about 65 billion Dirhams.

Vyas Jayabhanu, head of Abu Dhabi-based Al Dhafra Brokerage said a series of news yesterday created havoc. "Investors didn't take kindly to the news that real estate major Damac has laid off 200 employees. And then there was another big one that Emirates airlines profits dived by 88 per cent...Hence, investors, who came in today, did not believe Emaar chairman Mohammad Al Abbar's statement that UAE's GDP will contract from 14 per cent to nine per cent. They certainly feel it is going to be worse," he added.

In the last two months, expatriates, including a majority of Indians had sent home four billion Dirhams taking advantage of low rupee exchange value. Most of the funds were raised through easy personal loans from banks and any large scale layoffs will mean losses to banks.

Elsewhere in the region, a similar gloom pervades investors. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul Index closed 5.2 per cent down and Kuwait's stock exchange, the second largest in the Arab world, dropped 2.6 per cent. Qatar and Bahrain stock exchanges declined 6.25 per cent and 2.74 per cent, respectively.

On Tuesday, Nov 11 leading UAE bank Mashreq announced that it was open to merger. Meanwhile, a top banker from cash rich Abu Dhabi, the CEO of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Ervin Enox said his bank will not allow defaults from Dubai-owned government companies on credit payments.

Dubai realty meltdown stumps expat Indians
12 Dec 2008, 0530 hrs IST, Malena K Amusa, ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: When xxxx and xxxxxx moved from New York city to Dubai two years ago, they were greeted by the uncomfortable heat of
the desert emirate’s red hot property market. It took the couple, who are in their 30s and working for top corporations in Dubai, six months to secure an apartment mortgage as wealthy investors
from oil-rich Gulf neighbours and Russia were driving up property prices to dizzying heights. So, when they finally moved into their home earlier this year, they were elated.

But two weeks ago, they were facing a chilling new reality after the property market had cooled off substantially: they got a letter from their bank informing them that their monthly mortgage bill just went up from 18,000 dirham (dh) a month (Rs 2.47 lakh) to Dh 25,000 (Rs 3.43 lakh).

Citing global financial downturn, the bank, which takes its interest-rate cues from the cost of borrowing globally, had spiked the couple’s interest payment.

“Now, if one of us is laid off, we may have to give our keys to the bank,” rues xxxx Dubai — Asian realty’s ‘Promised Land’ — is showing symptoms of acute financial strain, causing big property developers like Nakheel to lay off hundreds, tycoons like Donald Trump to delay multi-million dollar projects, and average property buyers to balk at regulations that fail to shield investors from global fluctuations.

The oil-rich Gulf region, many had expected, would be spared the financial turmoil enveloping the rest of the world.

But crude oil prices fell from a peak of nearly $150 per barrel to less than $50, weakening Dubai’s financial backers and leaving the emirate, with little mineral wealth, in the doldrums.

“Unlike any part of the world, guys like me can’t walk out of a mortgage here,” says Abhy, a part-time property investor from Kochi, who wanted to protect his full identity. In July, Abhy, who works as a business consultant, invested 15% in cash in a 1,200 sq ft flat that cost Dh 1,700 per sq ft, in addition to getting a mortgage. His plan was to sell the flat in 2010 at a much higher rate. Today, he’s not sure he’ll get Dh 1,400 per sq ft even if he is lucky enough to find a buyer.

Abhy also had to give his bank an undated cheque for Dh 3.5 million, which the bank would cash in case he defaulted on his mortgage payments. That cheque would bounce, Abhy says. And most unsettling, his bank considers a change of job a default. A slowdown in Dubai’s economy could mean a fall from grace.

A recent report by UAE property assessment agency RichVille blames Dubai for doing little to protect investors such as Abhy.

“The central bank did not reduce its interest rates when all western countries reduced theirs,” the report said. Banks were discouraging construction and end-buyer finance “by significantly increasing interest rates, increasing required loan down payments to more than 35%, and finally making the terms for accepting loan applications very difficult.”

But hope seems to be on the horizon. Latest news reports indicate that banks are trying to make it easier to get a mortgage to spur buying.

And then there is the spectre of layoffs. Nakheel, one of the top three players in Dubai realty, laid off 500 employees — 15% of its workforce — in November. Morgan Stanley shed nearly 15% of its staff in Dubai and Lehman Brothers closed its office in Dubai’s financial district after it filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.

There are some lucky ones, too. Samir Sen, a civil engineer living in Dubai for 23 years, made a Dh 200,000 profit after buying a studio flat in 2006 and selling it last year. He’s now holding a second studio flat to develop and sell in two years. He is of the view that while credit is tightening, and people — who can’t afford to hold a home — struggle to sell, the housing market “is not going up or down; it’s stable.”

Venu Rajamony, India’s Consul General in Dubai, says the economy is strong, but adds that many Indians, mainly construction workers, are heading back home. There are 600,000 Indians living in Dubai, he said. Many are construction workers.

Abbas Ali Mirza, president of the Dubai-based Indian Business and Professional Council, an association of at least 700 business leaders, says: “Everything appears fine and normal.” Representatives of property development agencies Damac and Emaar declined to comment.

Meanwhile, XXXX and XXXXX consider their options. And one of them is to open a bedroom to a temporary tenant.

Dubai property giant sacks 500 as finance crisis bites
2008-11-30


DUBAI (AFP) - The Dubai property giant behind such grandiose projects as a one-kilometre tower and artifical palm-shaped islands said on Sunday it has fired 500 staff as the global economic crisis begins to bite in the oil-rich Gulf.

Government-controlled developer Nakheel, one of the biggest employers in the booming desert city-state, also said it would be scaling back work on some of its projects.

"Approximately 15 percent of the total workforce, which amounts to 500 employees, was made redundant," it said in a statement, describing the move as "a responsible action in light of the current global market conditions."

It is the largest job cut in the wake of the global financial meltdown to be announced in United Arab Emirates and in Dubai, a city of skyscrapers, opulent hotels and malls which hosts hundreds of thousands of foreign residents including Westerners and Asian workers.

"We have the responsibility to adjust our short term business plans to accommodate the current global environment," said an unnamed spokesperson quoted in the statement.

"The redundancies are indeed regrettable, but a necessity dictated by operational requirements which are in turn dependent on demand," the spokesperson added.

Earlier this month, Damac Group, owner of the region's largest private developer Damac Properties, said it cut 200 jobs or 2.5 percent of its workforce.

Nakheel is developing several iconic projects in Dubai, including three palm-shaped man-made islands, only one of which is completed, and a cluster of islands in the shape of a map of the world.

It also announced last month a jaw-dropping plan to build a one-kilometre-high (3,280 feet) tower which would overshadow the still unfinished Burj Dubai, already the tallest on earth.

Nakheel also develops residential and commercial property, whose sales thrived after the sector was opened to foreign investors a few years ago.

Last week, Nakheel jointly hosted a star-studded 20-million-dollar bash to celebrate the opening of the Atlantis Hotel on its Jumeirah Palm island, with a huge firework display.

Top officials in Dubai insist the emirate's real estate sector -- a major engine of economic growth in recent years -- will weather the global crisis, but investors appear to have lost confidence in the market which was until recently a great magnet for investments.

Mohammad Alabbar, head of Dubai's Advisory Council, which was formed to deal with the impact of the financial meltdown, hinted last week that Dubai's major developers will use their control over supply to curb an increasingly clear drop in property prices.

"Our priority is to manage supply in the real estate market to ensure equilibrium," he said.

Fears however loom over the future of Dubai's economy after a double-digit growth registered in the past few years, with concern rising over the emirate's accummulated foreign debt amid the global credit crunch.

The emirate's bourse has been taking severe beating since the beginning of the financial meltdown, mainly due to a nosedive in real estate shares.

Despite occasional surges, the Dubai Financial Market is now about 67 percent lower than its level at the the start of the year, while the market leader, Emaar property giant, has seen its shares drop to record lows.

Foreigners number over 4.7 million, or over 84 percent of the UAE population, while Indians alone account for 42.5 percent of all expatriates, according to an unofficial study released this year.

Expatriates from the Indian subcontinent and southeast Asia also make up around 75 percent of the workforce, the study said.

There are also about 120,000 Britons representing the largest Western community in the UAE, with 100,000 living in Dubai alone.


After months of press releases and government promises that there will be no such thing as a bubble in Dubai, the big boys of Dubai are finally saying, “Beam me up Scotty, I think I’m in trouble.”

“Trouble,” would be the understatement of the year, and the developers are making it clear they are not one whit interested in the fortunes of the smaller investor. Despite the recent introduction of laws written to protect smaller investors, Dubai’s property developers are thinking up new ways of avoiding any responsibility and screwing every last penny possible from the situation as fast as the new laws are passed.

MiNC, developer of Prodigy 1 in Jumeirah Village South has put a new proposal to their current investors:

Pay more than the agreed price, or we will cancel the project and keep your deposit.

The wording was slightly different, but that is what it amounts to. According to MiNC, two banks have withdrawn funding and “the project is no longer financially viable. Costs have increased to the extent that MiNC would make a significant and material loss if it were to build this project.”

Gulf News
It is actions such as this that will finally deflate what is left of the Dubai bubble. A lot of confusion is surrounding Article 11 under Law 13, which guarantees investors - “In the case of canceling the contract, the developer may retain 30 per cent of the ‘contract’s value’, and the rule of (30-70 per cent of the money paid) shall be applied on amounts exceeding 30 per cent.”

Key words here are “contracts value,” not “monies paid,” as the Article originally stated. Arguments abound and opinions are divided amongst those who feel that Dubai no longer needs outside investors and the emphasis of government intervention should be in favor of protecting the developers, and others feeling (as we do) that the smaller investor is vital if Dubai wishes to be anything more than a “Disneyland in the desert.”

As things stand at the moment, if a small investor defaults (as is starting to happen on a large scale), the developer keeps 100% of the money in some cases, and developers are simply refusing to answer questions or deal with inquiries. A number of smaller investors are attempting to band together in an effort to at least recover the “70% of monies paid.” One such group can be contacted here:

investorslaw13@hotmail.com

Elsewhere, prices are falling dramatically, with distressed properties being offered at 40% discounts on Palm Jumeirah, which is still massively over-priced. If falls in the US and Spain are any indicator, some analysts are expecting Dubai’s prices to fall anything as much as 60% in the next few months.

Other property websites are now starting to report on Dubai’s bursting bubble, and here is a selection:

Reuters - Dubai real estate suffers as distressed sales rise
AOL Dubai Property boom halts as prices fall and jobs go

According to Mohannad Sweid, CEO of Depa, some of Dubai companies are in “denial” about the viability of projects in light of the global financial crisis.

We are at the denial stage where lots of developers know for a fact that their projects should be cancelled and they’re either not announcing it or they’re saying it’s going to be delayed. We cannot deny the effect [the crisis] has been having, we are a part of this world and I believe it’s just not right to say we haven’t seen any impact. What we have had in the GCC in the last three years is the difference between reality and non-reality. Our market research showed there will be 280 new hotels built over four years within the GCC. That was advertised all the time… If we look at the reality - how many hotels have been delivered - it’s hardly more than five or six hotels a year.

In terms of risk to his own firm, Sweid was confident that infrastructure projects would still go ahead.

In this region, a lot of infrastructure is not developed yet and these elements of infrastructure have to be developed - it’s not a choice,” he said, citing Dubai’s new metro system as an example. He added that Depa was still on track for growth for next year, but the “fears” were for 2010 and 2011.

The real question is not whether the Dubai bubble has finally burst, but more how far it will deflate. With property prices quoted as having risen somewhere in the region of 76% over the last year, a major correction is likely. Already prices have fallen 40% in most developments, and we feel it is going to deflate a lot faster than it blew up.

Filed under Dubai by Mark Knowles

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

A Citizen's Charter

CITIZENS CHARTER – 10 points

A few points after the Mumbai terror attacks, just so that the flame is kept alive.

1)The death of Mr Karkare and the19 policemen have indicated the crying need to provide better arms, equipment and training for our police force. Outdated guns, sub-standard bullet proof jackets, poor infra-structure were exposed in the attack and what saved the day to an extent was personal commitment shown by some of these officers and foot soldiers.

2) The law enforcement personnel need to be paid better and the pending demands for salary revisions and more humane working conditions need to be addressed promptly. Fratricide among the CISF and CRP is occurring too frequently for comfort. If casualties in the line of duty were not enough, suicides due to work related stress seems to be the next cause for loss of life among security forces.This needs to be addressed with more headcount and more human working conditions rather than YOGA sessions. The people to police ratio is the worst in this country. Recruitment would help assuage the unemployment issue apart from winning votes.( just in case this has escaped the notice of the establishment).
There are quite a few Commissions that have urged reforms in the working of the law enforcement machinery. Dusting these files of cobweb and getting the likes of Kiran Bedi, Robeiro et al and starting an Action Committee to implement these across the country, would be the right step (or left step- depending on the political leaning)

3). A three tier structure, with a federal police force, a state level force and a district level force, could be looked at. The National “Investigative” Agency is fine, but there is already a CBI. To prevent two “investigating” each others pants off, the NIA should focus on terrorism and law and order problems that are federal in nature. Terrorism, separatism, violent and criminal acts by one linguistic group against another, should fall in its purview, so that it can act where the local force is unable to, though it wants to , or does not want to, though it is able to. The CBI should continue to focus on criminal investigations which are referred to it and which have multi-state ramifications. Recently the rapist son of a high ranking police chief in an Orrissa gave the police in Rajasthan the slip. Till date, the chase is on and even “Times Now” , with its always indignant, holier than thou, Arnab Goswami, in spite of his inquisitionary zeal has lost stamina and interest and has moved onto other juicier stories for the “nation is watching” hour at 9pm! An intra- state police force would have saved the day, or would have found it difficult to come up with excuses for the lapse!!
The recent investigations into various frauds have thrown up the need for specialized know how and skills. Cyber crime is another area where know- how needs to be augmented and specialized teams set up. Use of CCTV’s etc would anyway call for IT skills to be enhanced across the forces. White collar crime is on the increase and investigations and recovery of assets is a tricky business. Unless the skills on the law enforcement is as good as that on the other side, it will be a game of catch me if you can with the law enforcement beginning to resemble the famous Inspector Clouseau of the Pink Panther fame.

4) Life would become simpler too, if criminal investigation and implementation of the criminal procedure code is separated from crowd control and public safety. The Police Act is an anachronism and a British legacy. It needs to be made contemporary. The criminal procedure code needs review. Incorporating technological progress into the Evidence Act needs to be implemented. The number of courts and platforms for the judiciary to deliver justice needs to be enhanced significantly. "Justice delayed is justice denied". It is delayed decisions and the dilatory tactics (tareek pe tareek), that encourage crime. There is a feeling that one can get away with anything if one has the right connections. The law is not only blind, it is beginning to look as if it is deaf, dumb and handicapped!!!

5) People and politicians have mentioned the undue importance to “lal bathis”. There is need to augment the investments in safety/ security of public transport systems too. This is felt even more with the railways and road transport operations. While there is some improvement, a lot still needs to be done.

Separation of VIP security from the routine law enforcement functions needs to
be looked at. The option of a "protection tax" should be levied on politicians
and elected representatives who avail of it beyond a certain level. While “positional security” is a must for people who hold public office, we need to be rational in its implementation. Where the travel is not for fulfilling the requirements of the public office and is personal in nature (party work), the expenditure must be debited to the user of the security. There should also be reasonable restrictions on movement of such V.V.I.P’s so that the externality to the common citizen is reduced.

6) Licensing and monitoring of security agencies should be made stricter and they should be provided greater powers like permission to use sophisticated firearms to ensure protection of private property. Private parties then can afford to arrange for their own safety. With kidnapping becoming an industry in itself and a popular means of earning a livelihood among the vast unemployed in the Northern States, private security may become a necessity for most people in the upper income groups. Not everyone is an Adobe CEO , to cough up lakhs at short notice and throw it from running trains! If the law enforcement cannot deliver, the ‘potential ransom’ is better utilized as security costs. At least children are prevented from going through the trauma of a kidnap!!

7) Implementation of "bio metric smart cards' and integrating the electoral
rolls, ration cards, passport documents should be undertaken and monitored.
Public sector outlays in this area should increase the money flow and provide
sucour to the economy that is slowing down. Apart from ensuring that welfare projects and funds reach the right beneficiary, it also helps in monitoring and managing law and order problems. Linkage with other documents also ensures speedier investigations/ verifications of identity and less likelihood of infiltrations/illegal migrants and impostors.

8) The armed forces need substantial outlays to obtain better equipment and know how. This needs to be addressed. The condition of the air force is well known and has been the theme of a popular movie also (Rang De Basanti). The navy's inability to protect our rather long coastline has been exposed with the Mumbai blasts.

9) I think there is a need to ensure corrective action. As the saying goes "if
you wrong me once, shame on you, if you wrong me twice, shame on me"
The US never allowed a repeat of 9/11. UK ensured that the blasts there were
history, we seem to be impotent when it comes to the safety and dignity of our
people. The 1993 bomb blast accused and those who abetted them find supporters and sympathisers and seem to be walking around free. This includes an underworld don who was extradited from Portugal! The law should be the same for pick pockets and mass murderers, as well as those who aid them in any which way, never mind that they are popular film stars who enact national heroes in movies. People who lost their near and dear one's are also human beings and have rights.

10) Perversely and I hate myself for saying this, the only positive aspect in this
blast is that it is the powerful and the rich that was under attack and
therefore there is likely to be corrective action. If it had been another
suburban train where this had happened, things would have gone back to usual
with the usual platitudes about the "Resilience" of "Mumbai", the "Spirit of
Mumbai" and the followers of La Dolce Vita would have been partying this weekend with abandon. They would probably then make noises for stray dogs to be protected better, never mind if another construction labourer's child is
mistaken for garbage by these canines and pose for PETA with no clothes on. To add insult to injury, they would probably do a "fashion show" for the “poor accused” under POTA, who were accused “without proof “and whose "human rights" were violated!

Well now it is different, "enough is enough" is the headline among the voting public and Thank God for that!!
Amen

Post Script: 16th December 2008
At the time of sending this there is legislation being filed to handle the possibility of future terror attacks. One hopes that it does not take another 26/11 to get the political establishment to ensure that the right to life and liberty,to own property, to move freely in the country are fundamental to the citizens and it is their responsibility to see that it is not violated. The laws and the ways to implement them, should be updated and made relevant to the times that we live in. We seem to be living in an era where the “underworld” is the dispenser of “instant justice” and an extra constitutional authority instead of the democratic institutions!
This is the only explanation for the huge resources, network and consequently, clout, that these “anti-socials” seem to command.

We need to move to a status quo where we need not worry about our children being kidnapped, our women being teased or molested, our land and assets being seized from us without due compensation or consent, or life being taken simply because we were born into a place or to people whose religious faith we could not have decided.

As Tagore said,

Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high
Where knowledge is free
Where the world has not been broken up into fragments
By narrow domestic walls
Where words come out from the depth of truth
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection
Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way
Into the dreary desert sand of dead habit
Where the mind is led forward by thee
Into ever-widening thought and action
Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake

Amen